Flood Warning Issued for Essex and Clinton Counties Due to Ice Jam on East Branch Ausable River

Source: NOAA · Northeastern New York

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NWS Burlington VT has issued a Flood Warning for Essex and Clinton Counties until early Monday morning as an ice jam on the East Branch Ausable River triggers minor flooding.

What this NWS weather alert tells you, and what most readers miss

This notice was issued by NOAA on March 15, 2026 and geographically references Northeastern New York. Its severity classification of "high" signals how the issuing agency weighs the risk of harm if no action is taken — "critical" and "high" tier alerts typically carry direct consumer actions, while "medium" and "low" tend toward informational guidance or monitoring advisories. The category it belongs to — Weather Alerts — determines the regulatory framework behind it, which shapes what remedies (refunds, replacements, recalls, evacuations) are available to affected individuals and who holds statutory responsibility for enforcement.

Most readers skim a notice like this, check whether they are personally affected, and move on. The more useful lens is to read it as a data point about the issuing system: how quickly NOAA detected the hazard, how precise the geographic or product-identifier scope is, and whether similar notices have clustered in the same category or region in the last 90 days. Cluster patterns frequently precede a broader regulatory action — a single localized NWS weather alert is isolated; three of them within a quarter often indicate a supply-chain, infrastructure, or seasonal driver that will keep producing notices until something structural changes.

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Alert Details

The National Weather Service in Burlington VT has issued a Flood Warning for the East Branch Ausable River at Ausable Forks. The alert was triggered by an ice jam causing water to infiltrate lowlands along the river.

Affected Areas

The warning specifically affects Essex and Clinton Counties in New York. Impacted locations include Keene, Jay, and areas near Keeseville. Specific roads facing potential flooding include Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N near Marcy Field and Trumbulls Corner. High water is also expected to impact interests at Alice Falls near Keeseville.

What You Should Do

Residents are urged to follow the "Turn around, don't drown" rule when encountering flooded roads, as most flood-related deaths occur in vehicles. Exercise extreme caution when walking near riverbanks, as water levels can rise rapidly behind ice jams or if a jam releases without warning. Stay well away from any ice.

Expected Conditions

Minor flooding is currently occurring and is forecast to continue. As of 10:15 AM EDT Sunday, the river stage was recorded at 8.4 feet, which is above the flood stage of 7.0 feet. The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.9 feet this afternoon before falling below flood stage this evening. At 7.0 feet, water begins to overflow onto Hulls Falls Road, Route 73, and Route 9N. At 8.0 feet, water covers Route 9N near Trumbulls Corner in Jay.

Timeline

The Flood Warning is effective as of 10:56 AM EDT on Sunday, March 8, 2026. The river is expected to crest this afternoon and fall below flood stage this evening. The warning is scheduled to expire at 1:57 AM EDT on Monday, March 9, 2026.

Original source: NOAA Official Notice ↗

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Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about this NWS weather alert.

What is this NWS weather alert about?
NWS Burlington VT has issued a Flood Warning for Essex and Clinton Counties until early Monday morning as an ice jam on the East Branch Ausable River triggers minor flooding.
Which agency issued this alert?
This alert was issued by NOAA. The original notice is available at the source link at the bottom of this article.
How severe is this alert?
This alert is classified as "high" severity. Take precautions and monitor for updates.
What area is affected?
This alert affects Northeastern New York. Check with NOAA for the most current geographic scope.
Where can I find more Weather Alerts updates?
Browse the full Weather Alerts feed on Areazine at areazine.com/weather/ for the latest updates from NOAA and other agencies.