ResearchNWS red flag warnings2008-2025
Red flag warnings: where they fell, and which states get the most today
The National Weather Service issued 991 red flag warnings a year in 2017-2025, down 25% from 1,318 in 2008-2016. Most of the fall is in Florida (236 to 21 a year), Alabama (70 to 4 a year) and Georgia (45 to 5 a year), each down by three-quarters or more: a drop that steep in one state more likely reflects a change in how its offices issue the warning than in the weather (the archive does not record why). Summed over the other states' own counts, red flag warnings were down 7%. Texas, Colorado and Kansas get the most today (145, 140 and 94 a year in 2017-2025).
The finding in numbers
−25%national change, 2008-2016 to 2017-2025
991a year in 2017-2025
1,318a year in 2008-2016
down 7%in the other states, summed
Source: Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive of NWS watches, warnings and advisories (VTEC).
Red flag warnings by year
National count, each warning once. The current year is an outline.
Source: Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive of NWS watches, warnings and advisories (VTEC).
Which states get the most today
Yearly average per state, 2017-2025.
Source: Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive of NWS watches, warnings and advisories (VTEC).
Where they rose and fell
| State | 2008-2016 a year | 2017-2025 a year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 12 | 19 | +60% |
| South Dakota | 26 | 37 | +43% |
| Utah | 30 | 42 | +42% |
| Oregon | 42 | 56 | +33% |
| Colorado | 108 | 140 | +30% |
| Michigan | 6 | 8 | +21% |
| Nebraska | 65 | 77 | +18% |
| Wyoming | 57 | 65 | +15% |
| Montana | 40 | 45 | +13% |
| Illinois | 7 | 8 | +11% |
| Idaho | 36 | 38 | +7% |
| California | 82 | 87 | +6% |
| Washington | 30 | 32 | +4% |
| Kansas | 94 | 94 | +0% |
| Nevada | 45 | 44 | -2% |
| Minnesota | 22 | 21 | -6% |
| Missouri | 21 | 19 | -8% |
| Mississippi | 8 | 7 | -13% |
| Oklahoma | 54 | 46 | -15% |
| Connecticut | 7 | 6 | -23% |
| Arizona | 62 | 47 | -24% |
| Massachusetts | 5 | 4 | -24% |
| New Mexico | 126 | 89 | -29% |
| North Dakota | 21 | 14 | -32% |
| Texas | 221 | 145 | -34% |
| North Carolina | 11 | 7 | -38% |
| Virginia | 9 | 5 | -43% |
| Indiana | 8 | 4 | -45% |
| Arkansas | 10 | 5 | -49% |
| Alaska | 32 | 16 | -50% |
| Kentucky | 10 | 5 | -52% |
| New Jersey | 8 | 4 | -53% |
| Maryland | 7 | 3 | -57% |
| Pennsylvania | 9 | 4 | -61% |
| New York | 8 | 3 | -68% |
| Maine | 6 | 2 | -72% |
| New Hampshire | 6 | 1 | -75% |
| Georgia | 45 | 5 | -88% |
| Florida | 236 | 21 | -91% |
| Alabama | 70 | 4 | -94% |
Source: Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive of NWS watches, warnings and advisories (VTEC).
Method and limits
By AreaZine. The finding and every figure are computed from the records when the page opens; the text is written with AI tools and checked against them (editorial policy).
Counts are NWS red flag warnings (VTEC FW.W) by the month they were first issued, from the IEM archive. A warning that covers two states counts in both state rows and once nationally. The two periods split 2008-2025 in half; states with fewer than five a year in the first period are left out of the change table, where a few warnings would swing the percentage. A red flag warning is issued when each office's criteria are met, and offices have changed their criteria over time, so a change in the count can reflect how offices warn as well as the weather.